Simulation of the QBO in IAP-AGCM: Analysis of momentum budget: IAP-AGCM对QBO模拟的动量收支分析          下载免费PDF全文

《大气和海洋科学快报》2021,14(3):100021

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), a dominant mode of the equatorial stratospheric (~100–1 hPa) variability, is known to impact tropospheric circulation in the middle and high latitudes. Yet, its realistic simulation in general circulation models remains a challenge. The authors examine the simulated QBO in the 69-layer version of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics Atmospheric General Circulation Model (IAP-AGCML69) and analyze its momentum budget. The authors find that the QBO is primarily caused by parameterized gravity-wave forcing due to tropospheric convection, but the downward propagation of the momentum source is significantly offset by the upward advection of zonal wind by the equatorial upwelling in the stratosphere. Resolved-scale waves act as a positive contribution to the total zonal wind tendency of the QBO over the equator with comparable magnitude to the gravity-wave forcing in the upper stratosphere. Results provide insights into the mechanism of the QBO and possible causes of differences in models.摘要平流层准两年振荡 (QBO) 是赤道平流层 (~100–1 hPa) 变率的主要模态, 可对中高纬地区的环流产生重要影响, 但目前利用通用大气环流模式 (GCM) 对其进行准确模拟仍然是一个挑战.本文利用IAP大气环流模式 (IAP-AGCM) 的中高层大气模式版本 (IAP-AGCML69) 对QBO进行模拟, 并对其动量收支情况进行分析.研究发现, QBO主要是由对流活动引起的重力波强迫 (参数化) 引起的, 但该动量强迫被平流层赤道上升流所引起的平流过程显著削弱.模式可分辨尺度的波动强迫对赤道上空的QBO的总纬向风倾向有正贡献, 在上平流层, 其量值大小与参数化的重力波强迫相当.以上结果提供了对QBO形成机制以及模式模拟差异可能原因的认识.  相似文献   

A high-top version of IAP-AGCM: Preliminary assessment and sensitivity IAP-AGCM: 中高层大气环流模式的初步评估与敏感性分析          下载免费PDF全文

《大气和海洋科学快报》2021,14(2):100025

Extending the atmospheric model top to high altitude is important for simulation of upper atmospheric phenomena, such as the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation. The high-top version of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics Atmospheric General Circulation Model with 91 vertical layers (IAP-AGCML91) extends to the mesopause at about 0.01 hPa (~80 km). The high-top model with a fully resolved stratosphere is found to simulate a warmer stratosphere than the low-top version, except near the South Pole, thus reducing its overall cold bias in the stratosphere, and significantly in the upper stratosphere. This sensitivity is shown to be consistent with two separate mechanisms: larger shortwave heating and larger poleward stratospheric meridional eddy heat flux in the high-top model than in the low-top model. Results indicate a significant influence of vertical resolution and model top on climate simulations in IAP-AGCM.摘要提高大气环流模式的模式顶层高度对中高层大气 (如平流层准两年振荡) 的准确模拟至关重要. 本研究将IAP大气环流模型 (IAP-AGCM) 延伸至中层大气顶 (~0.01 hPa, ~80 km) 并提高垂直方向分辨率 (91层) , 发展了一个中高层大气环流模型 (IAP-AGCML91) . 结果表明, 与低层模式相比, 该中高层大气模式在整体上显著减小了平流层尤其是上平流层的冷偏差.研究发现这种改善与两种机制有关:与低层模式相比, 高层模式模拟的短波加热更大, 极区平流层附近的经向涡动热通量更大.上述结果表明, 垂直分辨率和模式顶层高度对IAP-AGCML91的气候模拟有重要影响.  相似文献   

模式内部变率引起的1.5℃和2℃升温阈值出现时间模拟的不确定性研究     

季涤非  刘利  李立娟  孙超  于馨竹  李锐喆  张诚  王斌 《气候变化研究进展》2019,15(4):343-351

模式内部变率是模拟结果不确定性的重要来源,然而它对于1.5℃和2℃升温阈值出现时间不确定性的影响尚不清楚。因此,基于耦合模式比较计划第五阶段(CMIP5)的多模式数据研究了模式内部变率对1.5℃和2℃升温阈值出现时间不确定性的影响以及对未来排放情景的敏感性。结果表明,模式内部变率对升温阈值出现时间模拟的影响与外强迫的影响相当,单个模式内部不同成员达到全球平均1.5℃或2℃增温的年份相差2~12年;其影响具有明显的空间差异,影响极大值出现在欧亚大陆以北洋面、白令海峡周围区域、北美东北部及其与格陵兰岛之间的海域、南半球高纬地区等;低排放情景下模式内部变率的影响大于高排放情景。  相似文献   

Influence of Sea Surface Temperature on the Predictability of Idealized Tropical Cyclone Intensity     

钟权加  李建平  李舒文  王羱  丁瑞强  张立凤 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2021,27(4):355-367

The role of sea surface temperature (SST) forcing in the development and predictability of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity is examined using a large set of idealized numerical experiments in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The results indicate that the onset time of rapid intensification of TC gradually decreases, and the peak intensity of TC gradually increases, with the increased magnitude of SST. The predictability limits of the maximum 10 m wind speed (MWS) and minimum sea level pressure (MSLP) are ~72 and ~84 hours, respectively. Comparisons of the analyses of variance for different simulation time confirm that the MWS and MSLP have strong signal-to-noise ratios (SNR) from 0-72 hours and a marked decrease beyond 72 hours. For the horizontal and vertical structures of wind speed, noticeable decreases in the magnitude of SNR can be seen as the simulation time increases, similar to that of the SLP or perturbation pressure. These results indicate that the SST as an external forcing signal plays an important role in TC intensity for up to 72 hours, and it is significantly weakened if the simulation time exceeds the predictability limits of TC intensity.  相似文献   

Interannual variability of the sea surface salinity and its related freshwater flux in the tropical Pacific: A comparison of CMIP5 and CMIP6          下载免费PDF全文

Hai Zhi  Yu Huang  Pengfei Lin  Shiwei Shi  Meng Dong 《大气和海洋科学快报》2022,15(4):100190

This paper assesses the interannual variabilities of simulated sea surface salinity (SSS) and freshwater flux (FWF) in the tropical Pacific from phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6). The authors focus on comparing the simulated SSS and FWF responses to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) from two generations of models developed by the same group. The results show that CMIP5 and CMIP6 models can perform well in simulating the spatial distributions of the SSS and FWF responses associated with ENSO, as well as their relationship. It is found that most CMIP6 models have improved in simulating the geographical distribution of the SSS and FWF interannual variability in the tropical Pacific compared to CMIP5 models. In particular, CMIP6 models have corrected the underestimation of the spatial relationship of the FWF and SSS variability with ENSO in the central-western Pacific. In addition, CMIP6 models outperform CMIP5 models in simulating the FWF interannual variability (spatial distribution and intensity) in the tropical Pacific. However, as a whole, CMIP6 models do not show improved skill scores for SSS interannual variability, which is due to their overestimation of the intensity in some models. Large uncertainties exist in simulating the interannual variability of SSS among CMIP5 and CMIP6 models and some improvements with respect to physical processes are needed.摘要通过比较CMIP5和CMIP6来自同一个单位两代模式模拟, 表明CMIP5和CMIP6均能较好地模拟出热带太平洋的海表盐度 (SSS) 和淡水通量 (FWF) 对ENSO响应的分布及其响应间的关系. 与CMIP5模式相比, 大部份CMIP6模式模拟的SSS和FWF年际变化分布均呈现改进, 特别是纠正了较低的中西太平洋SSS和FWF变化的空间关系. 但是, 整体上, CMIP6模式模拟的SSS年际变化技巧没有提高, 与SSS年际变率的强度被高估有关. CMIP5和CMIP6模式模拟SSS的年际变化还存在较大的不确定性, 在物理方面需要改进.  相似文献   

A multi-proxy reconstruction of spatial and temporal variations in Asian summer temperatures over the last millennium   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Feng?Shi  Quansheng?GeEmail author  Bao?Yang  Jianping?Li  Fengmei?Yang  Fredrik?Charpentier?Ljungqvist  Olga?Solomina  Takeshi?Nakatsuka  Ninglian?Wang  Sen?Zhao  Chenxi?Xu  Keyan?Fang  Masaki?Sano  Guoqiang?Chu  Zexin?Fan  Narayan?P.?Gaire  Muhammad?Usama?Zafar 《Climatic change》2015,131(4):663-676

To investigate climate variability in Asia during the last millennium, the spatial and temporal evolution of summer (June–July–August; JJA) temperature in eastern and south-central Asia is reconstructed using multi-proxy records and the regularized expectation maximization (RegEM) algorithm with truncated total least squares (TTLS), under a point-by-point regression (PPR) framework. The temperature index reconstructions show that the late 20th century was the warmest period in Asia over the past millennium. The temperature field reconstructions illustrate that temperatures in central, eastern, and southern China during the 11th and 13th centuries, and in western Asia during the 12th century, were significantly higher than those in other regions, and comparable to levels in the 20th century. Except for the most recent warming, all identified warm events showed distinct regional expressions and none were uniform over the entire reconstruction area. The main finding of the study is that spatial temperature patterns have, on centennial time-scales, varied greatly over the last millennium. Moreover, seven climate model simulations, from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), over the same region of Asia, are all consistent with the temperature index reconstruction at the 99 % confidence level. Only spatial temperature patterns extracted as the first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) from the GISS-E2-R and MPI-ESM-P model simulations are significant and consistent with the temperature field reconstruction over the past millennium in Asia at the 90 % confidence level. This indicates that both the reconstruction and the simulations depict the temporal climate variability well over the past millennium. However, the spatial simulation or reconstruction capability of climate variability over the past millennium could be still limited. For reconstruction, some grid points do not pass validation tests and reveal the need for more proxies with high temporal resolution, accurate dating, and sensitive temperature signals, especially in central Asia and before AD 1400.  相似文献   

Quantitative analysis of the feedback induced by the freshwater flux in the tropical Pacific using CMIP5     

Hai Zhi  Rong-Hua Zhang  Pengfei Lin  Lanning Wang 《大气科学进展》2015,32(10):1341-1353

Freshwater flux (FWF) directly affects sea surface salinity (SSS) and hence modulates sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Pacific. This paper quantifies a positive correlation between FWF and SST using observations and simulations of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to analyze the interannual variability in the tropical Pacific. Comparisons among the displacements of FWF, SSS and SST interannual variabilities illustrate that a large FWF variability is located in the west-central equatorial Pacific, covarying with a large SSS variability, whereas a large SST variability is located in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Most CMIP5 models can reproduce the fact that FWF leads to positive feedback to SST through an SSS anomaly as observed. However, the difference in each model's performance results from different simulation capabilities of the CMIP5 models in the magnitudes and positions of the interannual variabilities, including the mixed layer depth and the buoyancy flux in the equatorial Pacific. SSS anomalies simulated from the CMIP5 multi-model are sensitive to FWF interannual anomalies, which can lead to differences in feedback to interannual SST variabilities. The relationships among the FWF, SSS and SST interannual variabilities can be derived using linear quantitative measures from observations and the CMIP5 multi-model simulations. A 1 mm d-1 FWF anomaly corresponds to an SSS anomaly of nearly 0.12 psu in the western tropical Pacific and a 0.11°C SST anomaly in the eastern tropical Pacific.  相似文献   

Simulation of the equatorially asymmetric mode of the Hadley circulation in CMIP5 models     

Juan Feng  Jianping Li  Jianlei Zhu  Fei Li  Cheng Sun 《大气科学进展》2015,32(8):1129-1142

The tropical Hadley circulation (HC) plays an important role in influencing the climate in the tropics and extra-tropics. The realism of the climatological characteristics, spatial structure, and temporal evolution of the long-term variation of the principal mode of the annual mean HC (i.e., the equatorially asymmetric mode, EAM) was examined in model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The results showed that all the models are moderately successful in capturing the HC's climatological features, including the spatial pattern, meridional extent, and intensity, but not the spatial or temporal variation of the EAM. The possible reasons for the poor simulation of the long-term variability of the EAM were explored. None of the models can successfully capture the differences in the warming rate between the tropical Southern Hemisphere (SH) and Northern Hemisphere (NH), which is considered to be an important driver for the variation of the AM. Most of the models produce a faster warming in the NH than in the SH, which is the reverse of the observed trend. This leads to a reversed trend in the meridional gradient between the SH and NH, and contributes to the poor simulation of EAM variability. Thus, this aspect of the models should be improved to provide better simulations of the variability of the HC. This study suggests a possible reason for the poor simulation of the HC, which may be helpful for improving the skill of the CMIP5 models in the future.  相似文献   

Synergistic contribution of precipitation anomalies over northwestern India and the South China Sea to high temperature over the Yangtze River Valley   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Ge Liu  Renguang Wu  Shuqing Sun  Huimei Wang 《大气科学进展》2015,32(9):1255-1265

This study explores the characteristics of high temperature anomalies over eastern China and associated influencing factors using observations and model outputs. Results show that more long-duration (over 8 days) high temperature events occur over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley (YRV) than over the surrounding regions, and control most of the interannual variation of summer mean temperature in situ. The synergistic effect of summer precipitation over the South China Sea (SCS) region (18°-27°N, 115°-124°E) and the northwestern India and Arabian Sea (IAS) region (18°-27°N, 60°-80°E) contributes more significantly to the variation of summer YRV temperature, relative to the respective SCS or IAS precipitation anomaly. More precipitation (enhanced condensational heating) over the SCS region strengthens the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and simultaneously weakens the westerly trough over the east coast of Asia, and accordingly results in associated high temperature anomalies over the YRV region through stimulating an East Asia-Pacific (EAP) pattern. More precipitation over the IAS region further adjusts the variations of the WPSH and westerly trough, and eventually reinforces high temperature anomalies over the YRV region. Furthermore, the condensational heating related to more IAS precipitation can adjust upper-tropospheric easterly anomalies over the YRV region by exciting a circumglobal teleconnection, inducing cold horizontal temperature advection and related anomalous descent, which is also conducive to the YRV high temperature anomalies. The reproduction of the above association in the model results indicates that the above results can be explained both statistically and dynamically.  相似文献   

A delayed oscillator model for the quasi-periodic multidecadal variability of the NAO   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Cheng Sun  Jianping Li  Fei-Fei Jin 《Climate Dynamics》2015,45(7-8):2083-2099

  相似文献